Category: corporate governance

What Happens When Huge Capital Meets No Real Product? Welcome to AI Speculation!

What Happens When Huge Capital Meets No Real Product? Welcome to AI Speculation!

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Despite its hefty $1.3 billion investment, the recent collapse of Inflection serves as a stark reminder of the volatile AI startup landscape. Inflection’s flagship product, Pi, a ChatGPT rival, failed to gain traction, leading to the company’s dismantling by Microsoft. This case exemplifies the broader trend of massive capital influx into AI ventures lacking substantial products.

The Rise and Fall of Inflection

Inflection was founded by notable entrepreneurs such as Mustafa Suleyman of DeepMind, Karén Simonyan, and Reid Hoffman. Suleyman, a co-founder of DeepMind, had previously contributed to its advancements in AI, which eventually led to its acquisition by Google. Simonyan brought extensive experience from his work on AI research, while Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, provided substantial entrepreneurial and investment acumen.

With backing from influential investors including Bill Gates and Eric Schmidt, Inflection aimed to create a more empathetic AI companion. The company took around two years to develop Pi, its primary product, hoping to leverage its founders’ reputations and the significant capital raised to break into the AI market.

Why Pi Failed

Pi’s failure is attributed to several factors:

  • Lack of Unique Value: Pi’s context window was significantly shorter than competitors, hindering its ability to provide sustained conversational quality.
  • Market Oversaturation: The AI companion market is fiercely competitive, with established players like ChatGPT and Character.ai leading the pack.
  • Financial Mismanagement: Heavy investment without a corresponding viable product highlighted the risks of capital-heavy ventures in AI.

AI Funding and Startup Failures

The AI sector saw an estimated $50 billion in investments in 2023 alone. However, many startups have failed to deliver on their promises. Some notable closures in the last 18 months include:

  • Inflection: Absorbed by Microsoft, ceasing independent operations.
  • Vicarious: Acquired by Alphabet, failing to achieve its goal of human-like AI.
  • Element AI: Acquired by ServiceNow after struggling to commercialize its research.
StartupTotal
Investment ($M)		Years to
Product Launch		Peak Annual
Revenue ($M)		Outcome
Inflection130025Acquired by Microsoft
Vicarious15042Acquired by Alphabet
Element AI257310Acquired by ServiceNow
MetaMind4521Acquired by Salesforce
Geometric Intelligence6010.5Acquired by Uber

The Future of AI Investment

This trend of high investment but low product viability raises concerns about the future of AI innovation. Consolidation around major players like Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI could stifle competition and limit diversity in AI development.

Conclusion

The downfall of Inflection underscores the precarious nature of AI investments. As the industry continues to grow, investors must prioritize viable, innovative products over mere potential. This shift could foster a more sustainable and dynamic AI ecosystem.

The Fork in the Road: The Curveball that Redis Pitched

The Fork in the Road: The Curveball that Redis Pitched

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In a move announced on March 20th, 2024, Redis, the ubiquitous in-memory data store, sent shockwaves through the tech world with a significant shift in its licensing model. Previously boasting a permissive BSD license, Redis transitioned to a dual-license approach, combining the Redis Source Available License (RSAL) and the Server Side Public License (SSPL). This move, while strategic for Redis Labs, has created ripples of concern in the SAAS ecosystem and the open-source community at large.

The Split: From Open to Source-Available

At its core, the change restricts how users, particularly cloud providers offering managed Redis services, can leverage the software commercially. The SSPL, outlined in the March 24th press release, stipulates that any derivative work offering the “same functionality as Redis” as a service must also be open-sourced. This directly impacts companies like Amazon (ElastiCache) and DigitalOcean, forcing them to potentially alter their service models or acquire commercial licenses from Redis Labs.

A History of Licensing Shifts

This isn’t the first time Redis Labs has ruffled feathers with licensing changes. As a 2019 TechCrunch article [1] highlights, Redis Labs has a history of tweaking its open-source license, sparking similar controversies. Back then, the company argued that cloud providers were profiting from Redis without giving back to the open-source community. The new SSPL appears to be an extension of this philosophy, aiming to compel greater contribution from commercial users.

SAAS Providers in a Squeeze

For SAAS providers, the new licensing throws a wrench into established business models. Modifying core functionality to comply with the SSPL might not be feasible, and open-sourcing their entire platform could expose proprietary code. This could lead to increased costs for SAAS companies, potentially impacting end-user pricing.

Open Source Community Divided

The open-source world is also grappling with the implications. While the core Redis functionality remains open-source under RSAL, the philosophical shift towards a more restrictive model has some worried. The Linux Foundation even announced a fork, Valkey, as an alternative, backed by tech giants like Google and Oracle. This fragmentation could create confusion and slow down innovation within the open-source Redis ecosystem.

The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Innovation

The long-term effects of Redis’s licensing change remain to be seen. It might pave the way for a new model for open-source software sustainability, where companies can balance community development with commercial viability. However, it also raises concerns about control and potential fragmentation within open-source projects.

In conclusion, Redis’s licensing shift presents a complex scenario. While it aims to secure Redis Labs’ financial future, it disrupts the SAAS landscape and creates uncertainty in the open-source world. Only time will tell if this is a necessary evolution or a roadblock to future innovation.

References & Further Reading:

From Soaring High to Stalling Out: How Boeing Lost Its Engineering Edge

From Soaring High to Stalling Out: How Boeing Lost Its Engineering Edge

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The world’s largest aerospace conglomerate turns 108 this year. Boeing’s 1st plane, a Boeing Model 1 officially took off on 15 July 1916 when Wong Tsu (A Chinese graduate from MIT) completed the construction at the Heath Shipyard. As of 2023 September, a total of 78000 aircraft have rolled out of Boeing factories (excluding license-produced models elsewhere) with a total of 500+ unique aircraft designed across civilian, military, concept, prototypes and experiential designs. Boeing, really used to be a powerhouse of aviation technologies.

Boeing, once synonymous with aviation innovation, has hit turbulence in recent years. The company’s gradual decline can be traced to a shift in focus, prioritising short-term profits over the long-term commitment to hardcore engineering excellence that built its reputation.

P&L of Boeing across last 10 years.

P&L trend of Boeing, Infographics source Statista

A Legacy of Innovation Tarnished

Boeing’s history is a testament to American ingenuity. From the iconic 747 “Jumbo Jet” revolutionising passenger travel (over 1,500 delivered) to the technologically advanced 787 Dreamliner boasting superior fuel efficiency (over 1,700 delivered) [1], the company consistently pushed the boundaries of aerospace engineering. However, a gradual cultural shift began prioritising financial goals over engineering rigour. A Harvard Business Review article [2] highlights the pressure placed on engineers to meet aggressive deadlines and cost-cutting measures, potentially contributing to the tragic crashes of the 737 MAX aircraft. IMHO, The Boeing engineering disaster had roots in Welch’s deeply flawed management doctrines which were spread across American industry by his acolytes.

Lost Market Share and a Bleak Future

This shift in priorities has had significant financial consequences. The 737 MAX grounding, coupled with production delays of the 787 Dreamliner, significantly eroded Boeing’s market share. In the single-aisle passenger jet market, the crown jewel of commercial aviation, Airbus, Boeing’s main competitor, now holds a commanding lead of over 60% [3]. While Boeing struggles with a backlog of unfulfilled orders (around 4,000), Airbus boasts a healthier backlog exceeding 7,000 aircraft [4]. This translates to a stark difference in profitability. In 2023, Airbus reported a net profit of €4.2 billion ($4.5 billion) compared to Boeing’s net loss of $3.7 billion.

Examples of Lost Focus:

  • 737 MAX: The faulty design and subsequent crashes of the 737 MAX (over 100 undelivered orders due to grounding) exposed a culture that prioritised speed to market over thorough engineering review.
  • 787 Dreamliner: Production problems with the Dreamliner, including issues with electrical wiring and fuselage construction (hundreds of delayed deliveries), further eroded trust in Boeing’s manufacturing capabilities.
  • X-32 JSF: The loss of the JSF contract to Lockheed Martin in 2001 was a major blow to Boeing, as it represented the most important international fighter aircraft project since the Lightweight Fighter program competition of the 1960s 

Can Boeing Recover?

The road to recovery for Boeing will be long and arduous. Rebuilding trust with airlines and passengers will require a renewed commitment to safety and engineering excellence. This may involve significant changes in leadership and corporate culture, prioritizing long-term sustainability over short-term gains.

Boeing’s story serves as a cautionary tale for any company. While financial goals are important, sacrificing core values and engineering expertise can lead to devastating consequences. The future of this aviation giant remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: regaining its former glory will require a return to the principles that made it great in the first place.

References and Further Reading:

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