June, 2006 - Nocturnalknight's Lair

Commercial Remote Sensing Satellite Market Stabilizing

By Ramkumar Sundarakalatharan | June 3, 2006 | Comments 0 Comment

Commercial Remote Sensing Satellite Market Stabilizing

Lately, trends have been leaning toward applications in urban planning and development and search-and-rescue operations. Comparative satellite imagery could also be used to track endangered species and to help protect the Earth’s natural resources.

In a new study, “The Market for Civil & Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites,” Forecast International is projecting deliveries of approximately 139 imaging satellites worth $16.3 billion over the next 10 years. The first half of the period will be more active than the second, with 97 spacecraft slated for production within the next five years.

Despite the ever-growing list of remote sensing spacecraft destined for orbit during the next 10 years, very few new players are expected to enter the commercial operator market.

The U.S. commercial remote sensing market is headed toward a period of stability thanks to the acquisition of Space Imaging by Orbimage, now known as GeoEye., without which there could be much chaos.

“The narrowing of the field from three down to two should take a burden off the U.S. government, as ensuring adequate support to all three U.S. players had been problematic,” said John Edwards, Forecast International Space Systems Editor.

“Leaning on this government support, U.S. remote sensing operators now seem content to court government business almost exclusively, as there is much less emphasis on development of the commercial base,” said Edwards. “A rebound toward the commercial side is anticipated but it’s not expected for at least another five years or more,” he added.

Through 2009 production lines will remain very active, turning out an average of 19 spacecraft per year. The overwhelming majority will be low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites, with 19 such systems planned for 2006, followed by 23 in 2007 and 25 in 2008.

The value of annual LEO satellite production during the first half of the forecast period will range between $848 million at the low end and $3.2 billion at the high end. Production of the eight geostationary Earth-orbiting (GEO) spacecraft planned for the forecast period is valued at approximately $1.4 billion.

The top unit producer in the LEO remote sensing satellite market is expected to be the Indian Space Research Organization, which is forecast to supply 14 satellites over the next 10 years. “India’s production plans for remote sensing satellites are ambitious and unrivaled,” said Edwards.

“Of course, he added, “the United States has a handful of large satellites in the pipeline to serve individual companies like DigitalGlobe and GeoEye, but again, these serve individual companies, whereas the ISRO and Antrix drive the plans for Indian production.”

This centralized approach has led to one of the most powerful and cohesive satellite fleets in orbit. India currently owns and operates a fleet of six remote sensing satellites.

Over the next 10 years, as the shared aims for satellite-based imagery are realized, international cooperation on civil programs will become more mainstream. The markets for the data are myriad, starting with serving governments during wartime, engineers during development, and farmers during the growing season.

Competition to sell these products is fierce, and Forecast International expects this competition to spur another round of limited consolidation during the forecast period.

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India Cancels Agni III Test

By Ramkumar Sundarakalatharan | June 1, 2006 | Comments 0 Comment

India Cancels Agni III Test

The Agni III (pictured) is said to be able to deliver a 440-pound to 550-pound warhead with a high degree of accuracy.

The Indian government has decided to cancel the first test-firing of its Agni III inter-continental ballistic missile.

The Agni III was the pride of the Indian strategic missile program and was designed to have a range of at least 1,400 miles, and possibly as far as 2,000 miles, giving it the capability of hitting cities across southern China with nuclear weapons.

According to a report in Asia Times Online May 25, U.S. pressure may have played a role in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to cancel the test, which has angered pro-military hawks in the Indian defense establishment and right-wing Hindu nationalists.

“The United States has always been very suspicious about India’s Agni program, and in 1994 persuaded it to suspend testing of (earlier, shorter-range versions of) the missile after three test flights,” theAsia Times Online report said. The U.S.-backed Missile Technology Control Regime seeks to prevent the proliferation of missiles capable of delivering an 1,100-pound payload over distances of more than 180 miles.

“Decisions concerning the country’s strategic program, including the development and testing of different classes of missiles, are based on technical factors and a continuous review and assessment of our overall security environment,” an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.

The Agni III is said to be able to deliver a 440-pound to 550-pound warhead with a high degree of accuracy. The longest-range, surface-to-surface Agni III has reportedly been ready for launch for two years, but the tests have been repeatedly postponed, Asia Times Online said.

India’s military capabilities and arsenal are developed by the Defense Research and Development Organization which works in close coordination with space and nuclear-power institutions. “There is no doubt that it is the shadow of Washington and access to nuclear energy that finally tilted the scales against the Agni III.” the Asian Times Online report said

Indian Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that self-imposed “restraint” was behind India’s failure to test-fire the Agni III.

“Self-restraint does not mean that the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization) can’t go ahead with cold-bed tests for the missile’s subsystems,” he said.

However, Jane’s Defense Weekly noted on May 24 that Indian analysts have said Mukherjee’s “ambiguous” explanation was due to “sensitive and crucial” diplomatic and strategic talks with the United States and China. New Delhi did not want the Agni III to be a stumbling block during Mukherjee’s visit to Beijing this week. Missile tests could also hamper U.S. congressional ratification of the bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement offered by the United States, Jane’s Defense Weekly said.

An Agni III test launch would also send the “wrong signals” to the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Rio de Janeiro in June, an Indian official told Jane’s.

However its understandable that the pro-nuclear hawks in the US is gunning for bush’s blood and specefically in this time when the crucial Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation treaty is to be introduced in the senate, the reason behind the canceling of the test

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